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Vliv cen ropy na ekonomiky států Perského zálivu
Kubinec, Kryštof
Kubinec K., Influence of oil prices on the economies of the Persian Gulf states. Bache-lor thesis. Brno: Mendel University in Brno, Faculty of Business Economics. The main aim of the thesis is to study the influence of oil prices on the economies of the Gulf states through the main economic indicators. For this is used regres-sion analysis. The last part of the thesis is devoted to the declining revenues from crude-oil production of these states and the measures taken by the Gulf states against these trends.
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Comparison of the economics of Nigeria and Indonesia from the 1990s until the present
Valovik, Valeryia ; Šaroch, Stanislav (advisor) ; Sejkora, Jiří (referee)
This diploma thesis deals with the comparison of the economics of Nigeria and Indonesia from the 1990s until the present. The aim of this paper is to determine strengths and weaknesses in their economies and the factors that influenced the past and continue to impact the economic development of Nigeria and Indonesia nowadays. Fulfillment of the aim is ensured by a comparison of the aspects of historical, social, cultural, political and economic developments. Special attention is given to the analysis of international trade between the two states and to the energy sector in the respective states. In the conclusion, a statistical analysis of the dependence of economic growth on oil prices was conducted.
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Volatility transmission between oil prices and European stock market
Nechvátalová, Lenka ; Kočenda, Evžen (advisor) ; Kuc, Matěj (referee)
This thesis examines transmissions of returns and volatility between crude oil and stock indices from different sectors of economy. We will be using daily Brent crude futures and Euro Stoxx sector indices from 1992 to 2017. For the analysis we employ bivariate VAR BEKK-GARCH model to simultaneously estimate the conditional mean and variance equations, to investigate the causal relationships between the variables. In addition we use the results of our estimation to calculate optimal portfolio weights and hedge ratios. The results show Granger causality from oil to most of the individual sectors, reverse relationship exists in two cases. We found unidirectional volatility spillovers from stock sectors to oil in majority of cases and in 4 sectors the spillover was bidirectional. Keywords volatility transmissions, VAR GARCH model, crude oil prices, stock sector indices 1
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Impact of Oil Price Shocks on Automobile Stock Prices, An Impulse Response Analysis
Malárik, Lukáš ; Jánský, Ivo (advisor) ; Mikolášek, Jakub (referee)
The goal of this master thesis is to analyze impact of shocks in oil prices to automobile industry stock prices and returns. We decompose oil price shocks on oil supply shocks, aggregate demand shocks and oil-specific demand shocks and assess their individual impacts on these stock prices/returns. This is done using the vector autoregression (VAR) methodology which allows us to compute impulse responses, that is the reaction paths on the individual shocks. In addition to linear VARs we also employ threshold VAR models in order to capture nonlinearities in impulse responses and besides the aggregate automobile stock price index we compute these nonlinear impulse responses also for some selected individual car producers. We think that this analysis have two different uses. First, it can be beneficial to stock market investors. Second, it can be used by policymakers in countries such as Slovakia and the Czech Republic, which are relatively heavily dependent on automotive industry. 1
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Závislost na ropných výnosech, ceny ropy a měnové kurzy: analýza denních dat
Budkov, Roman ; Zouhar, Jan (advisor) ; Formánek, Tomáš (referee)
This paper studies the relationship between the oil prices and exchange rates of oil exporting countries, in terms of their dependence on oil rents. The study is based on data at the daily frequency over the period 2005-2015. In the first chapter, the data set and basic characteristics of the countries are described. The second chapter represents the econometric framework for the practical section. Applying a vector error correction model mainly produced controversial results. Analysis based on a GARCH approach found a positive relationship between the value of the currencies and the oil prices, although the link with the oil rents dependence is not sufficiently evident. The paper also supports stylized facts, such as a negative relationship between the U.S. dollar value and the oil prices.
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Terms of trade: impact on the czech international trade and economic growth in 2005 - 2015
Dulovec, Adam ; Zamrazilová, Eva (advisor) ; Šimíček, Petr (referee)
The thesis is focused on the changes in the terms of trade in Czech international trade in the term of from 2005 to 2015, as the period after the Czech Republic joined the European Union. The terms of trade are an important indicator of the benefits and loses of international trade. The main aim is to analyze the changes of terms of trade, the causes of their changes, and the impact on the real economy. The direction of the overall terms of trade index was highly unsettled, and did not actually generated additional gains in the economy not over the reporting period. The overall terms of trades were most influenced by the price development of two groups of the Standard International Trade Classification, Crude materials and lubricants, and machinery and transport equipment. The prices of Crude materials and lubricants are determined mainly by changes in the oil prices. These were very volatile in the reporting period, the especially the collapse of the prices in both 2009 and 2014-2015, had a significant impact on the import prices of the Czech economy. The thesis also analyzes the impact of exchange rate on the international trade prices, in the period since November 2013, i.e. after the Czech National Bank has committed to maintain the rate of Czech koruna against the Euro above the level of 27 CZK/EUR, which helped to protect the economy from deflations and enhance the economic growth. The effect of the weak crown, that favored the Czech exporters, however a faded over time.
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Speculation on oil markets and its impact on commodity's price
Melcher, Ota ; Taušer, Josef (advisor) ; Baláž, Peter (referee) ; Müller, Štěpán (referee)
This study aims to analyse the precrisis period on the oil markets with a primary objective of assessing the role of speculation in the commodity's price development and its volatility. First it depicts the rapidly increasing speculative activity on the futures market together with the parallel oil price surge. The speculation is initially proxied by non-commercial traders' positions and subsequently quantified by Working's T-index. The paper then uses speculative traders' positions and both spot and futures prices to test for Granger causality within the framework of VAR models. For the sake of consistency it also evaluates causal links between speculation and inventories level. Further the study investigates the speculation impact on volatility of oil prices by employing various approaches in volatility quantification including GARCH models. Contrary to expectations we find that the speculatio's impact on both prices and their volatility is rather insignificant. In the last chapter we therefore seek for an explanation of the oil price developments by examining the market fundamentals. The interaction of supply and demand finally gives substantial evidence for understanding the price developments in the precrisis period.
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Which Factors Drive Growth of Demand for Passenger Air Travelling?
Ondrejová, Zuzana ; Chytilová, Helena (advisor) ; Vozárová, Pavla (referee)
Is GDP per capita one of the main drivers affecting demand for passenger air travelling? Based on the time series analysis conducted for North American and Middle Eastern region, we have not rejected hypothesis about positive impact of GDP per capita on demand for air travelling. The thesis also analyzes whether the effects observed are weaker for more developed and more saturated markets. The second hypothesis was rejected, as we have found that the effect of the GDP per capita was on average 10% stronger for the North American region than for the Middle Eastern region. Moreover, we have found that for both regions oil prices are the important driver of the passenger air travel demand.
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Fuel prices and their impact on road transport
KOTEK, Jiří
Development of road transportation in Czech republic was compared with driving fuels prices development by the simple statistic examination. In was discovered, that volume of transported goods is developing indenpendently on prices of petrol and diesel in each year during last ten years. This fact is explained by business enviroment of goods transportation. Companies are obligate to deliver the goods by contract apart of the price of fuels. Outputs of goods and personál transportation rising along with prices of fuels, which is caused by growth of economy in Czech republic leading do larger amount of possible contracts and oportunities. Statistic analysis therefor confirms the hypothesis stated above. Prices of driving fuels have no influence in growth neither the structure of vehikle park in Czech republic. The amount of vehicles rises steadily last ten years indenpendently on fuel prices development. Economy crysis only slows the rise down.
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